PITCHER MATCHUP

Zack Wheeler vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Zack Wheeler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Zack Wheeler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .278vs RHH xwOBA .230Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sinker 17%Sweeper 14%Splitter 10%Cutter 10%Curveball 9%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Zack Wheeler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .229 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Jake Mangum SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-01 game page →