PITCHER MATCHUP

Zack Wheeler vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Zack Wheeler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Zack Wheeler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .279vs RHH xwOBA .219Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Sinker 17%Sweeper 14%Splitter 11%Cutter 10%Curveball 9%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Zack Wheeler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 530 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .227 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HD Henry Davis RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JG Jacob Gonzalez LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Gonzalez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.