PITCHER MATCHUP

Zack Wheeler vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Zack Wheeler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Zack Wheeler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .286vs RHH xwOBA .225Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Sinker 17%Sweeper 14%Splitter 11%Cutter 10%Curveball 9%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Zack Wheeler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .380
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .414 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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