PITCHER MATCHUP

Zack Wheeler vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Zack Wheeler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Zack Wheeler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .280vs RHH xwOBA .227Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Sinker 17%Sweeper 14%Splitter 12%Cutter 10%Curveball 9%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Zack Wheeler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .376
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .410 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.