PITCHER MATCHUP

Zach Thornton vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Zach Thornton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Zach Thornton's arsenal

Throws LHPSeasons 2026
Cutter 32%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sinker 21%Sweeper 12%Slider 8%Curveball 3%Changeup 3%Unknown 1%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Zach Thornton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Cutter (32% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Cutter (32% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Cutter (32% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Cutter (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Cutter (32% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Cutter (32% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Cutter (32% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CW Connor Wong RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Cutter (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AS Anthony Seigler SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Anthony Seigler
    • Cutter (32% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-12 game page →