PITCHER MATCHUP

Zac Thornton vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Zac Thornton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Zac Thornton's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .293vs RHH xwOBA .336Seasons 2026
Cutter 36%Four-Seam Fastball 24%Sinker 13%Sweeper 11%Slider 8%Changeup 4%Curveball 4%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Zac Thornton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .232 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 616 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CW Connor Wong RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EW Eli White RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eli White
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.