PITCHER MATCHUP

Zac Thornton vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Zac Thornton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Zac Thornton's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .347vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026
Cutter 35%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Sinker 15%Sweeper 12%Slider 7%Changeup 4%Curveball 3%Unknown 1%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Zac Thornton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 HD Henry Davis RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 ER Endy Rodríguez SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Endy Rodríguez
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-07 game page →