PITCHER MATCHUP

Zac Thornton vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Zac Thornton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Zac Thornton's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .298vs RHH xwOBA .329Seasons 2026
Cutter 33%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Sweeper 15%Sinker 9%Curveball 7%Slider 5%Changeup 5%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Zac Thornton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 562 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.