PITCHER MATCHUP

Zac Thornton vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Zac Thornton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Zac Thornton's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .298vs RHH xwOBA .329Seasons 2026
Cutter 33%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Sweeper 15%Sinker 9%Curveball 7%Slider 5%Changeup 5%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Zac Thornton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .369
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 474 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 537 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 529 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.