PITCHER MATCHUP

Zac Thornton vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Zac Thornton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Zac Thornton's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .319vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026
Cutter 36%Four-Seam Fastball 24%Sinker 14%Sweeper 11%Slider 8%Changeup 4%Curveball 3%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Zac Thornton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .328
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .364
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 492 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 408 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-18 game page →