PITCHER MATCHUP

Zac Thornton vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Zac Thornton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Zac Thornton's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026
Cutter 35%Four-Seam Fastball 24%Sinker 13%Sweeper 13%Slider 7%Changeup 4%Curveball 4%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Zac Thornton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .384
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .427 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .418 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .454 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 466 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-30 game page →