PITCHER MATCHUP

Zac Thornton vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Zac Thornton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Zac Thornton's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .298vs RHH xwOBA .329Seasons 2026
Cutter 33%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Sweeper 15%Sinker 9%Curveball 7%Slider 5%Changeup 5%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Zac Thornton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .386
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .424 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .414 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .408 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Cutter (33% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.