PITCHER MATCHUP

Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Yoshinobu Yamamoto's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .264vs RHH xwOBA .275Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Splitter 26%Curveball 16%Cutter 12%Sinker 10%Slider 5%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.