PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .306Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sinker 23%Sweeper 20%Changeup 11%Curveball 6%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 RG Riley Greene LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 537 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .221 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 GT Gleyber Torres RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gleyber Torres
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JO James Outman LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. James Outman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .210 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.