PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .340vs RHH xwOBA .306Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Sinker 23%Sweeper 21%Changeup 9%Curveball 5%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 RG Riley Greene LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MV Matt Vierling RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Vierling
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 KC Kerry Carpenter LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kerry Carpenter
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 1 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-01 game page →