PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .331vs RHH xwOBA .301Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Sinker 23%Sweeper 21%Changeup 9%Curveball 6%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 MM Matt McLain RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JB JJ Bleday LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .217 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 BD Blake Dunn RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blake Dunn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 DM Dane Myers RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-20 game page →