PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .301Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Sinker 23%Sweeper 21%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 643 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Adley Rutschman SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TS Trevor Story RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NS Nick Sogard SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.