PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .306Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sinker 23%Sweeper 20%Changeup 11%Curveball 6%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 604 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CW Connor Wong RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EW Eli White RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eli White
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.