PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .336vs RHH xwOBA .300Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Sinker 23%Sweeper 21%Changeup 9%Curveball 5%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 564 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Marcelo Mayer LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcelo Mayer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-26 game page →