PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .338vs RHH xwOBA .305Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Sinker 23%Sweeper 21%Changeup 10%Curveball 5%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 NF Nick Fortes RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-07 game page →