PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .306Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sinker 23%Sweeper 20%Changeup 11%Curveball 6%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NF Nick Fortes RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.