PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .295Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Sinker 23%Sweeper 21%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.