PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .295Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Sinker 23%Sweeper 21%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.