PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .346vs RHH xwOBA .306Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sinker 23%Sweeper 20%Changeup 10%Curveball 6%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .229 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JM Jake Mangum SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-20 game page →