PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .347vs RHH xwOBA .301Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Sinker 23%Sweeper 21%Changeup 11%Curveball 6%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 547 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.