PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .306Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sinker 23%Sweeper 20%Changeup 11%Curveball 6%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .364
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 502 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CC Colton Cowser LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .223 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TO Tyler O'Neill RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler O'Neill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-18 game page →