PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .295Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Sinker 23%Sweeper 21%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CR Cal Raleigh SH .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 LR Luke Raley LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CE Colt Emerson LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BD Brendan Donovan LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brendan Donovan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 LR Leo Rivas SH .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Rivas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.