PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .306Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sinker 23%Sweeper 20%Changeup 11%Curveball 6%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .330
  1. 1 CY Cole Young LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 TW Taylor Ward RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JN Josh Naylor LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 592 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .408 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CE Colt Emerson LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 VR Victor Robles RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Robles
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-12 game page →