PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .308Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sinker 24%Sweeper 20%Changeup 10%Curveball 6%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 527 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 543 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 575 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 466 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-31 game page →