PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .342vs RHH xwOBA .307Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sinker 23%Sweeper 20%Changeup 11%Curveball 6%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 510 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-05 game page →