PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .343vs RHH xwOBA .301Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Sinker 23%Sweeper 21%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 535 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .231 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.