PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .295Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Sinker 23%Sweeper 21%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.