PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .348vs RHH xwOBA .306Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sinker 23%Sweeper 20%Changeup 11%Curveball 6%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .395
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .429 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-25 game page →