PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Warren vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .295Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Sinker 23%Sweeper 21%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .388
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .424 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.