PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Glasnow vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Glasnow's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Glasnow's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .291vs RHH xwOBA .252Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Slider 21%Sinker 18%Curveball 13%Knuckle Curve 10%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Glasnow, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.