PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Glasnow vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Glasnow's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Glasnow's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .289vs RHH xwOBA .252Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 37%Slider 21%Sinker 18%Curveball 14%Knuckle Curve 10%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Glasnow, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 521 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-24 game page →