PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Alexander vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Alexander's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Alexander's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .309vs RHH xwOBA .332Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 22%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sweeper 20%Sinker 18%Changeup 18%Unknown 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Alexander, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CN Connor Norby RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Norby
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 OC Owen Caissie LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JM Joe Mack LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-22 game page →