PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Alexander vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Alexander's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Alexander's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .307vs RHH xwOBA .326Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 22%Cutter 21%Sweeper 20%Changeup 19%Sinker 18%Unknown 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Alexander, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .232 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 OC Owen Caissie LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JM Joe Mack LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.