PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .272Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 19%Cutter 19%Sinker 10%Splitter 7%Curveball 7%Changeup 3%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .366
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .418 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 582 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC Jazz Chisholm Jr. LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JC José Caballero RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AW Austin Wells LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.