PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .272Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 19%Cutter 19%Sinker 10%Splitter 7%Curveball 7%Changeup 3%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .335
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .366
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .419 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC José Caballero RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AW Austin Wells LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 SJ Spencer Jones LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Jones
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 AJ Aaron Judge RHB .394
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Aaron Judge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .431 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .428 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .442 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.