PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Chicago White Sox

How the Chicago White Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .272Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 19%Cutter 19%Sinker 10%Splitter 7%Curveball 7%Changeup 3%

How the Chicago White Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago White Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 MV Miguel Vargas RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Vargas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CM Colson Montgomery LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colson Montgomery
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .438 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CM Chase Meidroth RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase Meidroth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SA Sam Antonacci LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sam Antonacci
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MM Munetaka Murakami LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Munetaka Murakami
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TP Tristan Peters LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tristan Peters
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AB Andrew Benintendi LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Benintendi
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BM Braden Montgomery SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Braden Montgomery
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BD Brenton Doyle RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brenton Doyle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.