PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .318vs RHH xwOBA .247Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Slider 19%Cutter 18%Sinker 9%Splitter 9%Curveball 7%Changeup 2%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RL Royce Lewis RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 VC Victor Caratini SH .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RK Ryan Kreidler RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Kreidler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-01 game page →