PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .272Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 19%Cutter 19%Sinker 10%Splitter 7%Curveball 7%Changeup 3%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RL Royce Lewis RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 BB Byron Buxton RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.