PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .309vs RHH xwOBA .246Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Slider 20%Cutter 17%Sinker 10%Splitter 9%Curveball 5%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IC Isaac Collins SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 VP Vinnie Pasquantino LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vinnie Pasquantino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 547 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 LT Lane Thomas RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Michael Massey LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 NL Nick Loftin RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SM Starling Marte RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Starling Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-23 game page →