PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .242Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 37%Slider 19%Cutter 18%Splitter 9%Sinker 9%Curveball 6%Changeup 1%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NF Nick Fortes RHB .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-26 game page →