PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .272Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 19%Cutter 19%Sinker 10%Splitter 7%Curveball 7%Changeup 3%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.