PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .240Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Slider 20%Cutter 18%Sinker 10%Splitter 9%Curveball 6%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .366
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 530 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LT Leody Taveras SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CM Coby Mayo RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TO Tyler O'Neill RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler O'Neill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-28 game page →