PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .272Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 19%Cutter 19%Sinker 10%Splitter 7%Curveball 7%Changeup 3%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .370
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 549 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .418 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .232 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .219 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.