PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .265Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 19%Cutter 19%Sinker 10%Splitter 8%Curveball 7%Changeup 3%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 555 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .368
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .410 xwOBA over 530 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .416 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .232 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .220 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BA Blaze Alexander RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Alexander
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.