PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .309vs RHH xwOBA .242Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Slider 19%Cutter 18%Splitter 10%Sinker 9%Curveball 6%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .331
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 589 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .363
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CE Colt Emerson LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 VR Victor Robles RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Robles
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.