PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .272Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 19%Cutter 19%Sinker 10%Splitter 7%Curveball 7%Changeup 3%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CR Cal Raleigh SH .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .418 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 LR Luke Raley LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 CE Colt Emerson LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 BD Brendan Donovan LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brendan Donovan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LR Leo Rivas SH .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Rivas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.