PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .319vs RHH xwOBA .269Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Cutter 19%Slider 19%Sinker 10%Splitter 8%Curveball 7%Changeup 3%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .329
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 535 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 581 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 558 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 637 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .410 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.