PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .265Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 19%Cutter 19%Sinker 10%Splitter 8%Curveball 7%Changeup 3%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-14 game page →