PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .272Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 19%Cutter 19%Sinker 10%Splitter 7%Curveball 7%Changeup 3%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.