PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .323vs RHH xwOBA .290Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Slider 25%Cutter 12%Sinker 9%Splitter 8%Curveball 5%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .406
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .416 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .414 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .444 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .456 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CS Cam Smith RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 408 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Jake Meyers RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Meyers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.