PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .240Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Slider 20%Cutter 18%Sinker 10%Splitter 9%Curveball 6%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .410
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .429 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .416 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .426 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .457 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CW Christian Walker RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.