PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .272Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 19%Cutter 19%Sinker 10%Splitter 7%Curveball 7%Changeup 3%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .404
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .426 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .410 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .435 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BM Brice Matthews RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.