PITCHER MATCHUP

Troy Melton vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Troy Melton's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Troy Melton's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .265Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 19%Cutter 19%Sinker 10%Splitter 8%Curveball 7%Changeup 3%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Troy Melton, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .403
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .424 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .420 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .431 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 468 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.