PITCHER MATCHUP
Trey Gibson vs San Diego Padres
How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trey Gibson's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.
Trey Gibson's arsenal
Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .406vs RHH xwOBA .372Seasons 2026
Sinker 25%Slider 21%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Cutter 19%Curveball 13%Sweeper 2%
How the San Diego Padres's regulars project
Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trey Gibson, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.
Lineup avg xwOBA .323
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1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .340
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .334
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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3 MM Manny Machado RHB .339
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .319
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .331
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6 TF Ty France RHB .320
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .306
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .328
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 485 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .291
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.