PITCHER MATCHUP
Trey Gibson vs San Diego Padres
How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trey Gibson's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.
Trey Gibson's arsenal
Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .406vs RHH xwOBA .372Seasons 2026
Sinker 25%Slider 21%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Cutter 19%Curveball 13%Sweeper 2%
How the San Diego Padres's regulars project
Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trey Gibson, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.
Lineup avg xwOBA .320
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1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .346
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .343
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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3 MM Manny Machado RHB .340
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .317
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .317
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 530 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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6 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .294
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 LC Luis Campusano RHB .324
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .292
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 ST Samad Taylor SH .307
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
- Sinker (25% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.