PITCHER MATCHUP

Trey Gibson vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trey Gibson's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trey Gibson's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .394vs RHH xwOBA .347Seasons 2026
Sinker 23%Four-Seam Fastball 22%Slider 21%Cutter 20%Curveball 14%Sweeper 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trey Gibson, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.