RunsLeft › Pitchers › Trevor Williams
Relief Pitcher

Trevor Williams

Reliever
Model projection · strikeout prop
70.8%
70.8% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 1.5 Ks, tonight vs. TB. Confidence high.
ERA
3.93
FIP
–
IP
18.1
W-L
0-0
WHIP
1.42
K%
28.4
BB%
8.6
GB%
–
K/9
11.3
HR/9
1.5

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Rays · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Rays current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .306

  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 502 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .266
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

41% of pitches · .323 xwOBA allowed · 328 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
1%3%4%1%1%2%6%9%7%3%6%13%15%12%6%1%2%3%2%1%0%1%1%1%2%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.000.799.188.209–.360.103.349.374.201.527.322.385.325.297–.484.091.056.345–.698.260.386.415
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.000.023.007.003–.008.006.033.025.006.033.041.057.039.017–.008.002.001.002–.005.003.003.007
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) has allowed .323 xwOBA over 328 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

5 pitch types · 2,803-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
41% usage · 14% whiff · .323 xwOBA · 89.9 mph
Sweeper ST
26% usage · 31% whiff · .233 xwOBA · 78.2 mph
Changeup CH
13% usage · 31% whiff · .316 xwOBA · 81.7 mph
Sinker SI
11% usage · 13% whiff · .406 xwOBA · 88.6 mph
Slider SL
9% usage · 2% whiff · .406 xwOBA
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
0102030405060707/297/318/48/68/98/188/239/1
Four-Seam FastballSweeperChangeup
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB15.5 .352 377
vs. RHB25.9 .273 320
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

Live lines load in your browser.
Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

Today’s picks load in your browser.