PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor McDonald vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor McDonald's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor McDonald's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .368vs RHH xwOBA .253Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 53%Slider 32%Changeup 12%Cutter 2%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor McDonald, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .229 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LH Liam Hicks LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CN Connor Norby RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Norby
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Owen Caissie LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-20 game page →