PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor McDonald vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor McDonald's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor McDonald's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .368vs RHH xwOBA .253Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 53%Slider 32%Changeup 12%Cutter 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor McDonald, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 AB Alex Bregman RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MB Moisés Ballesteros LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Moisés Ballesteros
    • Sinker (53% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.