PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .259vs RHH xwOBA .269Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Changeup 29%Sinker 22%Slider 14%Curveball 3%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 506 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Ben Rice LHB .365
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .422 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JC Jazz Chisholm Jr. LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC José Caballero RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 466 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AW Austin Wells LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AR Amed Rosario RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Amed Rosario
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AV Anthony Volpe RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Anthony Volpe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-24 game page →