PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .248vs RHH xwOBA .267Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 28%Sinker 21%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .328
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .361
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 577 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JC José Caballero RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AW Austin Wells LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AJ Aaron Judge RHB .401
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Aaron Judge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .441 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .491 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.