PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .250vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 28%Sinker 20%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .328
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .363
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC José Caballero RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 AW Austin Wells LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 SJ Spencer Jones LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Jones
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AJ Aaron Judge RHB .400
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Aaron Judge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .440 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .490 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.