PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .251vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Changeup 28%Sinker 22%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .360
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .410 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JC Jazz Chisholm Jr. LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 TG Trent Grisham LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trent Grisham
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC José Caballero RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AW Austin Wells LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.