PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Chicago White Sox

How the Chicago White Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .261vs RHH xwOBA .264Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Changeup 29%Sinker 22%Slider 14%Curveball 3%

How the Chicago White Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago White Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 CM Chase Meidroth RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase Meidroth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 MV Miguel Vargas RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Vargas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CM Colson Montgomery LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colson Montgomery
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AB Andrew Benintendi LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Benintendi
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TP Tristan Peters LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tristan Peters
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SA Sam Antonacci LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sam Antonacci
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 EQ Edgar Quero SH .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Edgar Quero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LA Luisangel Acuña RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luisangel Acuña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RG Randal Grichuk RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randal Grichuk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-19 game page →