PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Chicago White Sox

How the Chicago White Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .254vs RHH xwOBA .266Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Changeup 28%Sinker 22%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the Chicago White Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago White Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 MV Miguel Vargas RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Vargas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CM Chase Meidroth RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase Meidroth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CM Colson Montgomery LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colson Montgomery
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SA Sam Antonacci LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sam Antonacci
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AB Andrew Benintendi LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Benintendi
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 TP Tristan Peters LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tristan Peters
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Munetaka Murakami LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Munetaka Murakami
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 EQ Edgar Quero SH .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Edgar Quero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LA Luisangel Acuña RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luisangel Acuña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.