PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Chicago White Sox

How the Chicago White Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .248vs RHH xwOBA .269Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Changeup 28%Sinker 21%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the Chicago White Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago White Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 MV Miguel Vargas RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Vargas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CM Colson Montgomery LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colson Montgomery
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CM Chase Meidroth RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase Meidroth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SA Sam Antonacci LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sam Antonacci
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TP Tristan Peters LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tristan Peters
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Munetaka Murakami LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Munetaka Murakami
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 AB Andrew Benintendi LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Benintendi
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 BM Braden Montgomery SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Braden Montgomery
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RG Randal Grichuk RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randal Grichuk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.