PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .244vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 28%Sinker 20%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 RG Riley Greene LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GT Gleyber Torres RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gleyber Torres
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JB Javier Báez SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Báez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.