PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .256vs RHH xwOBA .265Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Changeup 28%Sinker 22%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CK Colt Keith LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GT Gleyber Torres RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gleyber Torres
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JB Javier Báez SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Báez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Max Clark LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Max Clark
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-28 game page →