PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .250vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 28%Sinker 20%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 624 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 551 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DM Dane Myers RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.