PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .256vs RHH xwOBA .267Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Changeup 29%Sinker 22%Slider 14%Curveball 3%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-22 game page →