PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .244vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 28%Sinker 20%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.