PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .256vs RHH xwOBA .265Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Changeup 28%Sinker 22%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 461 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 677 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .367
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 576 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .431 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AB Alec Bohm RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BH Bryce Harper LHB .367
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BS Bryson Stott LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 543 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.