PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .252vs RHH xwOBA .267Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Changeup 29%Sinker 22%Slider 14%Curveball 3%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .330
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .373
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 541 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .435 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 BH Bryce Harper LHB .372
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AB Alec Bohm RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BS Bryson Stott LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 502 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JC Justin Crawford LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ES Edmundo Sosa RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Edmundo Sosa
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-12 game page →