PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .244vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 28%Sinker 20%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 719 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .364
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 621 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .439 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 BH Bryce Harper LHB .366
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AB Alec Bohm RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BS Bryson Stott LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.