PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .250vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 28%Sinker 20%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .365
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 549 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.