PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .248vs RHH xwOBA .269Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Changeup 28%Sinker 21%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 555 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .364
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.