PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .255vs RHH xwOBA .264Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Changeup 29%Sinker 22%Slider 13%Curveball 3%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 530 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LT Leody Taveras SH .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CM Coby Mayo RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TO Tyler O'Neill RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler O'Neill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-29 game page →