PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs San Francisco Giants

How the San Francisco Giants's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .250vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 28%Sinker 20%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the San Francisco Giants's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Francisco Giants's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 RD Rafael Devers LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rafael Devers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 624 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JH Jung Hoo Lee LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jung Hoo Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 WA Willy Adames RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willy Adames
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 597 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CS Casey Schmitt RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Casey Schmitt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BE Bryce Eldridge LHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Eldridge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DG Drew Gilbert LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drew Gilbert
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MC Matt Chapman RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Chapman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 468 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MM Marcelo Mayer LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcelo Mayer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CK Christian Koss RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Koss
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.