PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .254vs RHH xwOBA .266Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Changeup 28%Sinker 22%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 MB Michael Busch LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-04 game page →