PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .248vs RHH xwOBA .267Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 28%Sinker 21%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 579 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 515 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 557 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 601 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 617 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.