PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .250vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 28%Sinker 20%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 MS Matt Shaw RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GA Gabriel Arias RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Arias
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.