PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .254vs RHH xwOBA .266Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Changeup 29%Sinker 21%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 507 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 NC Nathan Church LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JF José Fermín RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BT Bryan Torres LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Torres
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TS Thomas Saggese RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Thomas Saggese
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-03 game page →