PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .250vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 28%Sinker 20%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.