PITCHER MATCHUP

Tarik Skubal vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tarik Skubal's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tarik Skubal's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .251vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Changeup 28%Sinker 22%Slider 14%Curveball 4%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tarik Skubal, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 BT Brice Turang LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WC William Contreras RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB Jake Bauers LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC Jackson Chourio SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CY Christian Yelich LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DH David Hamilton LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AV Andrew Vaughn RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Vaughn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-16 game page →