PITCHER MATCHUP

Tanner Gordon vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tanner Gordon's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tanner Gordon's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .359vs RHH xwOBA .358Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Slider 26%Changeup 21%Curveball 5%Sinker 3%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tanner Gordon, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 OC Owen Caissie LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JM Joe Mack LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GP Graham Pauley LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Graham Pauley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-30 game page →