PITCHER MATCHUP

Tanner Bibee vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tanner Bibee's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tanner Bibee's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .293Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 28%Cutter 23%Sinker 16%Changeup 16%Sweeper 9%Curveball 8%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tanner Bibee, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 644 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TS Trevor Story RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NS Nick Sogard SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.