PITCHER MATCHUP

Tanner Bibee vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tanner Bibee's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tanner Bibee's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .292Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 27%Cutter 23%Sinker 17%Changeup 16%Sweeper 9%Curveball 8%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tanner Bibee, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-16 game page →