PITCHER MATCHUP

Steven Matz vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Steven Matz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Steven Matz's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .282vs RHH xwOBA .344Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 54%Changeup 25%Curveball 15%Slider 6%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Steven Matz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CM Coby Mayo RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CC Colton Cowser LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 BA Blaze Alexander RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Alexander
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.