PITCHER MATCHUP

Steven Matz vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Steven Matz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Steven Matz's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .283vs RHH xwOBA .343Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 54%Changeup 25%Curveball 15%Slider 6%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Steven Matz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CC Colton Cowser LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CE Christian Encarnacion-Strand RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Encarnacion-Strand
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.