PITCHER MATCHUP

Steven Matz vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Steven Matz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Steven Matz's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .284vs RHH xwOBA .344Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 54%Changeup 25%Curveball 15%Slider 7%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Steven Matz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CC Colton Cowser LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TO Tyler O'Neill RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler O'Neill
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Sinker (54% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.