PITCHER MATCHUP

Stephen Kolek vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Stephen Kolek's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Stephen Kolek's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .321vs RHH xwOBA .308Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 25%Slider 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 11%Sweeper 8%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Stephen Kolek, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .275
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.