PITCHER MATCHUP

Stephen Kolek vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Stephen Kolek's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Stephen Kolek's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .308Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 25%Sinker 25%Slider 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 12%Sweeper 8%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Stephen Kolek, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .306
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 NF Nick Fortes RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-02 game page →