PITCHER MATCHUP

Stephen Kolek vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Stephen Kolek's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Stephen Kolek's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .316vs RHH xwOBA .305Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 25%Sinker 25%Slider 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 12%Sweeper 8%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Stephen Kolek, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JF José Fermín RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BT Bryan Torres LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Torres
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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