PITCHER MATCHUP

Stephen Kolek vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Stephen Kolek's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Stephen Kolek's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .321vs RHH xwOBA .308Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 25%Slider 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 11%Sweeper 8%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Stephen Kolek, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Iván Herrera RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 507 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.