PITCHER MATCHUP

Stephen Kolek vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Stephen Kolek's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Stephen Kolek's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .321vs RHH xwOBA .308Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 25%Slider 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 11%Sweeper 8%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Stephen Kolek, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 384 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MW Masyn Winn RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 NC Nathan Church LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JF José Fermín RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 VS Victor Scott II LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Scott II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.