PITCHER MATCHUP

Stephen Kolek vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Stephen Kolek's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Stephen Kolek's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .321vs RHH xwOBA .308Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 25%Slider 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 11%Sweeper 8%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Stephen Kolek, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.